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          <td align="center"><h1 style="color:#05006C">医药：整体业绩低位趋稳 但持续性尚待观察</h1></td>
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          <td align="center" height="30"><a href="http://www.gushi888.com">www.gushi888.com</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;2009年03月03日 09:16&nbsp;&nbsp;银华投资&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
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          <td align="left" class="px148" id="__content">　　价格：短期整体小幅上升本期内，全球原油价格继续延续价格下跌走势。整体而言，化工医药产品价格近期出现反弹局面，主要有两方面原因：一是，春节过后，经过去年的大幅下跌，多数企业存货处于较低状态，甚至没有，因此年后开工需要备货；二是，部分停车的企业在年后也陆续开工(尽管开工率依然较低)，原有开工率较低的企业也小幅提升开工率，使得市场供需关系发生变化，产品价格回升。<br />
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　　盈利：价增量稳，化医整体盈利仍待观察前期库存年前多数企业已经消化，库存压力基本得到缓解，伴随着大部分化工企业年后陆续恢复开工，产品价格小幅提高，但行业整体需求情况尚未完全恢复，化医整体盈利仍待观察，预期：长期看好新材料，医药盈利相对稳定维持上期观点：产能存在内涵式扩张的化工新材料企业值得继续重点关注，如烟台万华&nbsp;&nbsp;（<span style='color:blue'>600309</span> <a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=600309&t=3' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>股吧</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=600309&t=1' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>行情</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=600309&t=2' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>资讯</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=600309&t=6' target='_blank'><span style='color:red'><u>主力买卖</u></span></a>）。受国家监管的民爆产业的上市公司久联发展&nbsp;&nbsp;（<span style='color:blue'>002037</span> <a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002037&t=3' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>股吧</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002037&t=1' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>行情</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002037&t=2' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>资讯</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002037&t=6' target='_blank'><span style='color:red'><u>主力买卖</u></span></a>）、江南化工&nbsp;&nbsp;（<span style='color:blue'>002226</span> <a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002226&t=3' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>股吧</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002226&t=1' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>行情</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002226&t=2' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>资讯</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002226&t=6' target='_blank'><span style='color:red'><u>主力买卖</u></span></a>）值得继续重点关注。<br />
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　　另外，收益4万亿投资直接拉动的沥青行业上市公司路翔股份&nbsp;&nbsp;（<span style='color:blue'>002192</span> <a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002192&t=3' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>股吧</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002192&t=1' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>行情</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002192&t=2' target='_blank'><span style='color:blue'><u>资讯</u></span></a><span style=font-family:宋体>,</span><a href='http://go.cnfol.com/?act=directa&c=002192&t=6' target='_blank'><span style='color:red'><u>主力买卖</u></span></a>）值得重点关注。<br />
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　　新医改方案于2009年1月21日通过，新医改将可能给行业带来结构性的机会：1.大病专科用药将继续受益于医保人群加大以及保障水平的提高，是确定性最高的机会；2.国家加大投入将会给政府采购品种带来高速增长，这包括基础医疗器械和疫苗行业；3.基本药物制度的实施将有可能使大型普药企业和部分重要企业从中受益。</td>
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