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          <td align="center"><h1 style="color:#05006C">申能股份：面临金融危机 经营仍呈向好趋势</h1></td>
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          <td align="center" height="30"><a href="http://www.gushi888.com">www.gushi888.com</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;2009年01月12日 13:20&nbsp;&nbsp;银华投资&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
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          <td align="left" class="px148" id="__content">　　公司发展电力业务、石油天然气业务双主业，一定程度上分散了公司面对不确定外部环境的经营风险。<br />
<br />
　　公司高效、大容量机组占比高。公司装机容量中，60万千瓦以上机组占比超过50%，特别是外高桥第三发电有限公司两台100万千瓦机组的相继投产，进一步提升了整个公司的资产质地，截止到2008年6月，公司发电企业供电煤耗仅为306克/千瓦时。公司优质机组使得机组小时利用数得到保证。<br />
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　　上海地区以三产为主的产业结构特点保障了电力需求变化受金融危机冲击较小；燃煤价格大幅回落增强公司盈利能力；利率下调降低公司财务成本支出，减轻公司现金流压力。<br />
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　　虽然受累石油价格下跌，但考虑到天然气价格相对稳定，天然气销售数量会呈现不断上升趋势，预计未来石油天然气业务盈利能力比较稳定。<br />
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　　在上网电价、天然气价格不变；电力需求无超预期下滑前提下，我们预测08～10年每股收益分别为：0.29元、0.47元、0.58元，提升为谨慎推荐评级。</td>
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<tr><td colspan=2 nowrap align=left><b>银华投资历史文章:</b> </td></tr>
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<tr valign='top'><td width='15'><font size='2'>·</font></td><td class=px148 align=left><a href='http://www.gushi888.com/090112/140,1438,5326901,00.shtml' target='_blank'>合肥三洋：营销变革下快速增长 关注后续发展</a></td></tr>
<tr valign='top'><td width='15'><font size='2'>·</font></td><td class=px148 align=left><a href='http://www.gushi888.com/090112/140,1437,5326896,00.shtml' target='_blank'>天津港：发展前景明朗的北方综合大港</a></td></tr>
<tr valign='top'><td width='15'><font size='2'>·</font></td><td class=px148 align=left><a href='http://www.gushi888.com/090112/140,1435,5326866,00.shtml' target='_blank'>通信设备：电信设备受益明显 弱势运营商发展契机！</a></td></tr>
<tr valign='top'><td width='15'><font size='2'>·</font></td><td class=px148 align=left><a href='http://www.gushi888.com/090112/140,1435,5326842,00.shtml' target='_blank'>工程机械行业：景气已趋底部 春天就在眼前！</a></td></tr>
<tr valign='top'><td width='15'><font size='2'>·</font></td><td class=px148 align=left><a href='http://www.gushi888.com/090112/140,1434,5326831,00.shtml' target='_blank'>建筑机械：铁路建设投资带动“双铁”收入大增</a></td></tr>
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成都银华执业证券分析师<br />
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